By Ingrid Hamm, Helmut Seitz, Martin Werding
Just as one should be prone to thinkthat every little thing approximately demographic switch has been already acknowledged and heard, a brand new measurement opens up. actually, this can be what makes the subject so attention-grabbing. there's not anything trivial any more approximately little ones, households, age, and care. Europe is present process profound demo photo swap. every one new release of kids is quantitatively smaller than that in their mom and dad; the propor tion of kids and young people one of the inhabitants is turning into smaller and smaller, whereas that of the elde rlyi s starting to be inexorably. Fewer and less everyone is marrying; a growing number of marriages are failing. Manyar eas of our society are tormented by this; simply take into consideration the demanding situations confronted via the social safeguard structures because of demographic aging. Politi cians and society are pressured to adju st todem ographic swap. many of us in Europe are thinking about those adjustments and want to politicians and researchers for ideas. Predictions are by no means effortless, specifically no longer concerning the destiny. Demographic signs are one of the most secure guidance into the unknown. young ones un born at the present time will surely no longer give a contribution to social structures through the subsequent years and won't pay again debt accrued by way of earlier generations. now not many politicians dare to negate the truth that this can be concerning the way forward for our society. The media have contributed seriously to a normal feeling that whatever thing should be performed. even if, what precisely shouldbe performed is largely dis puted.
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Extra info for Demographic Change in Germany: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences
But even these regions could only gain population by net in-migration from other parts. All in all, there has been a quite unbalanced situation of German demographic dynamics on a regional level. Another remarkable trend is the increasing diversity among cities. Because of differences in age composition, selective migration, or the economic situation, they divide in subgroups with diverse paths of development since reunification: There are shrinking cities such as those in the Ruhr region; shrinking cities with net immigration (Bremen, Dortmund); increasing cities with a natural decrease (Hamburg, Düsseldorf, and Dresden); and increasing cities which also had birth surpluses (Stuttgart, Munich, Cologne, and Frankfurt).
This chapter looks at the potential effects of aging on labor supply and economic growth and also discusses how Germany’s growth performance may change relative to that in other European and non-European countries. The first section looks at the main supply factors which determine long-term economic growth and compares Germany’s past economic growth with that in other industrial countries, also taking into account Germany’s relative income level at the beginning of this phase of pronounced aging.
Expert group meeting on policy responses to population ageing and population decline, New York, 16-18 October 2000 Demographic Change in Germany 33 Kemper FJ, Thieme G (1991) Regional disparities of mortality in the Federal Republic of Germany. Espace, Populations, Societés 1:93–100 Kemper J (2003) Binnenwanderungen in Deutschland: Rückkehr alter Muster? Geographische Rundschau 55(6):10–15 Luy M (2004) Mortality differences between Western and Eastern Germany before and after Reunification. GENUS No 3-4/2004:99–141 Luy M, Caselli G (2004) The impact of a migration-caused selection effect on regional mortality differences in Italy and Germany.