By Thierry Fabre, P. Sant Cassia, Paul Sant Cassia
Historians, anthropologists, political scientists and demographers discover the important demanding situations and fears characterizing kin among Europe and the Mediterranean. The participants recommend that the best problem dealing with our political iteration isn't any longer forming a Europe with no the Mediterranean, yet with it.
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Extra info for Between Europe and the Mediterranean: The Challenges and the Fears
4, or only two-thirds replacement level. In order for the cohorts born 1995–2005 to be as large as the cohorts of their parents, one migrant would need to be recruited for every two births. This is a much higher ratio of migrants to hosts than has ever been observed for a sustained period in any large country, let alone for an entity of 450 million people. 2 or less, the need for migrants to ‘top up’ the deficient cohorts would be even greater. Coping with migration on such a scale may be possible, but it will require a radical change in policies and attitudes.
The assumed increase in childbearing in Europe is probably more dubious. The logic behind this assumption (and similar ideas are used by the United Nations and many national forecasters) is that one factor in fertility decline in Europe since 1970 has been the delay of childbearing. For 35 years, Europeans have been having their babies at progressively older ages. This feature, known as the ‘tempo effect’, tends to cause fertility to fall more than if the age pattern was not changing. At some point, however, Demographic Transition in Europe and the Mediterranean 23 this delay can go no further before biological sterility sets in.
Egypt, Turkey, Algeria and Morocco have a large potential for migration for the next twenty years and will equal the population of France, Italy and Spain, where ageing is already occurring. Urbanisation is advancing: in 2000, with the exception of Albania, Bosnia and Egypt, the urban population was above 50 per cent; taking note of the fact that megalopolises are the waiting rooms of illegal immigrants, this fact is alarming. Between now and 2025, the population of the Maghreb could grow 48 per cent, as opposed to 3 per cent in the European Union.