By Toshihiko Hara
This is the publication to target a brand new phenomenon rising within the twenty-first century: the swiftly getting older and lowering inhabitants of a well-developed state, specifically, Japan. The which means of this phenomenon has been effectively clarified because the attainable ancient end result of the demographic transition from excessive beginning and demise premiums to low ones. Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional section and should be the fastest-shrinking society on this planet, prime different Asian international locations which are experiencing an identical drastic alterations. the writer used the historic records, compiled by means of the Statistic Bureau, Ministry of inner Affairs and Communications in 2006 and inhabitants projections for published in 2012 via the nationwide Institute of inhabitants and Social protection study, to teach the previous and destiny improvement of the dependency ratio from 1891 to 2060. Then, using the inhabitants existence desk and internet copy cost, the consequences of accelerating lifestyles expectancy and declining fertility at the dependency ratio have been saw individually. eventually, the historic relationships between women’s survival premiums at reproductive age, the theoretical fertility cost to take care of the substitute point and the recorded overall fertility price (TFR) have been analyzed. historic commentary confirmed TFR adapting to the theoretical point of fertility with a definite time lag and resembling women’s survival premiums at reproductive age. Women’s expanding lifespan and survival charges can have prompted choice making to reduce the chance of childbearing. no matter if the theoretical fertility cost meets the substitute point, women’s perspectives of minimizing the chance may possibly stay unchanged simply because for girls the cost–benefit imbalance in childbearing continues to be too excessive in Japan. in keeping with the findings, the writer discusses the sustainability of jap society on the subject of nationwide funds, social defense reform, kin guidelines, immigration guidelines and group polices.
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Extra resources for A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan
In this year, Tanaka Cabinet declared the start of constructing a welfare society. This cabinet made the people who are aged 70 or older enjoyed free medical care and this shifted up the scale of pension benefit significantly. As a result, the social security expenditure went up to 15 % of national finance for the first time. However, after the ‘Oil Shock’ in 1974, the economic circumstances and Japanese economic growth were totally changed. But the legacy of this welfare policy remains behind.
In other words, the amplifying effect of belowreplacement fertility rate on optimal care cost has become stronger than ever. 3; Statistics Bureau 2006). 54. It was because a decreasing childcare costs offset increasing elder care costs. 70 at a female life expectancy of 86 years. 40. This inversely disproportionate relationship between child and elder care costs could be explained by historical increases in longevity. 4; Statistics Bureau 2006). 28 3 Demographic Transition and Child/Elderly Care Cost ϭ͘Ϯ ϭ͘ϭ ϭ ϮϬϭϬ ϭϵϵϱ Ϭ͘ϵ ϭϵϳϱ ϭϵϱϱ Ϭ͘ϴ ϭϴϵϭͬϭϴϵϴ Ϭ͘ϳ Ϭ͘ϲ Ϯ͘ϮϬ Ϯ͘ϭϬ Ϯ͘ϬϬ ϭ͘ϵϬ ϭ͘ϴϬ ϭ͘ϱϬ ϭ͘ϰϬ ϭ͘ϯϬ ϭ͘ϮϬ ϭ͘ϭϬ ϭ͘ϬϬ Ϭ͘ϵϬ Ϭ͘ϴϬ Ϭ͘ϳϬ Ϭ͘ϲϬ Ϭ͘ϱϬ Ϭ͘ϰϬ Ϭ͘ϰ ϭ͘ϳϬ īĞĐƚƐŽĨ/ŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐ>ŝĨĞ ǆƉĞĐƚĂŶĐǇ Ϭ͘ϱ ϭ͘ϲϬ KƉƟŵĂůĂƌĞŽƐƚ īĞĐƚƐŽĨ/ŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐ&ĞƌƟůŝƚǇ īĞĐƚƐŽĨĞĐůŝŶŝŶŐ&ĞƌƟůŝƚǇ EZZ;EĞƚZĞƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶZĂƚĞͿ Fig.
35 % in 1950 (1900 birth cohort). Then, it began to increase continuously. 61 % in 2010 (1960 birth cohort) (NIPSSR 2012). 6 By adjusting the proportion of childlessness in married women, the proportion was based on the total population of women while adding the proportion of never-married women. In sum, one can approximately estimate childlessness of the women (Hara 2008). 5 36 4 Historical Process and Background of Fertility Decline in Japan /DWH0RUWDOLW\ 5DWHV ,QFUHDVLQJ /LIH ([SHFWDQF\ :RPHQ¶V6XUYLYDO5DWH GXULQJ&KLOGEHDULQJ